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 Scientists in the UK and across the World are looking at the evidence of climate change and are using computer models to come up with predictions for our future environment and weather. They predict; -
FLOODING. Major floods that have only happened before say, every 100 years on average, may now start to happen every 10 or 20 years. The flood season may become longer and there will be flooding in places where there has never been any before. The UK has experienced devastating floods throughout the last five years which have affected thousands of people and caused millions of pounds worth of damage. Today 5 million people in England and Wales are at risk of flooding every year.
RISING SEA LEVELS will also add to the flooding problem. As temperatures rise, the sea will absorb heat from the atmosphere, causing it to expand and therefore creating sea level rises. This will be further compounded as the ice sheets in Greenland and the Arctic melt. Sea levels could rise up to 7m in this century. Large areas of England could be under water mainly in the South East of England leaving millions of people displaced without homes and less land to build new homes and grow food.
TEMPERATURE. In the UK we have already experienced rise is temperatures with 19th July 2006 being the hottest day ever recorded in the UK. Extreme temperatures will become the norm in the medium term.
However, as the Gulf Stream becomes weaker due to the melting ice sheets, it may become less stable and therefore be more likely to shut down completely in the future. The gulf stream brings warmth to the UK and is the reason we have mild winters. The average annual temperature of the UK will fall about 9oC should the Gulf Stream shut down.
FOOD & WATER. Water throughout the world is a precious commodity. Water consumption doubles every 20 years yet only 1% of the planets water is drinkable. By 2025 over 2.7 billion people worldwide will be without access to clean drinking water. In the UK with higher temperatures and less rainfall the UK will experience even greater risk of water shortages. This is already being experienced in the South East of England. In the future water conservation measures in the UK will be compulsory.
The crops we produce in the UK could alter significantly with climate change. The weather is a vital part in farming and changes in temperature and precipitation will be important in sustaining crop growth. Worldwide as temperatures rise and land becomes infertile there will be less crops produced due to shortage of land and water and therefore the number of people who die through starvation will rise.
HEALTH. The climate we live in affects many areas of our lives. The quality of the food we eat, the water we drink and our homes are all dependent on our climate and weather. Some scientists have suggested that a warmer world will be a sicker world. While there is not complete agreement that this will be the case, the Department of Health have looked at the likely health consequences in the UK. High temperatures can be dangerous, especially for the very young or very old or those with chronic disease. In the 2003 heatwaves in Paris over 15,000 people died of hyperthermia due to the extreme temperatures.
With milder winters and hotter summers there is also a danger that bacteria would no longer die-off seasonally meaning that diseases may spread more widely. More heat waves will increase the number of hot-weather related deaths by up to 2,800. Exposure to higher levels of UV light could cause an extra 5,000 deaths a year from skin cancer and may cause an increase of up to 2,000 cases of cataracts. Warmer summers may cause up to 10,000 extra cases of food poisoning each year in the UK alone.
Globally, there are likely to be more floods, more droughts and more storms, which will be accompanied by damage to our homes, food and water supplies which impact on our general health. An increase in flooding will promote the spread of water-borne diseases plus the growth of fungi, while droughts encourage mosquito, flies, locusts and rodents, all affecting food, water supplies and health.
WILDLIFE. The affects of climate change aren't going to be restricted to humans. The possible dangers for plants and animals throughout the world are a great concern to environmentalists. Birds, fish, and land-based animals are all going to be under threat as their habitats and climate alter. Plants, trees and shrubs are also going to have to adapt.
According to the World Wildlife Fund climate change, as a result of human activity, has already claimed its first victim. The Golden Toad of Costa Rica is thought to be extinct as a result of global warming.
Species are under threat in more than one way. Climate change is predicted to cause a number of weather extremes which could directly affect our wildlife, for example through flooding or storms.
However, the biggest concern is how the changes in weather will affect the habitats in which species live. Less snow in winter, warmer temperatures in summer and more winter rain will affect wildlife across the board. Sea level rises will reduce land area in some countries, which will instantly affect vegetation which is currently used for homes and food by animals. |
